Miami is favored to beat Las Vegas by 5.6 points. The book has Las Vegas by 3.

The Raiders cover −3 in 26% of our 20,000 simulated games; that does not pay at −112 (needs 53%).

We expect 44.6 total points; the line is 40.5. The over hits 60% of the time.

Indianapolis is favored to beat Baltimore by 3.3 points. The book has Baltimore by 3.5.

The Ravens cover −3.5 in 32% of our 20,000 simulated games; that does not pay at −105 (needs 51%).

We expect 52.6 total points; the line is 47.5. The over hits 62% of the time.

Tennessee is favored to beat the Jets by 0.7 points. The book has them by 1.5.

The Titans cover −1.5 in 49% of our 20,000 simulated games — a coin flip at −110.

We expect 45.4 total points; the line is 38.5. The over hits 68% of the time.

We have the Giants and Dallas even. The book has Dallas by 3.

The Cowboys cover −3 in 43% of our 20,000 simulated games; that does not pay at −105 (needs 51%).

We expect 54.2 total points; the line is 48.5. The over hits 63% of the time.

The Chargers are favored to beat Arizona by 6.3 points. The book has them by 9.5.

The Chargers cover −9.5 in 41% of our 20,000 simulated games; that does not pay at −115 (needs 53%).

We expect 45.6 total points; the line is 47.5. The under hits 57% of the time.

Cincinnati is favored to beat Tampa Bay by 1.2 points. The book has them by 3.5.

The Bengals cover −3.5 in 44% of our 20,000 simulated games; that does not pay at −112 (needs 53%).

We expect 51.8 total points; the line is 50.5. The over hits 52% of the time.

Pittsburgh is favored to beat Atlanta by 3.3 points. The book has them by 6.

The Steelers cover −6 in 43% of our 20,000 simulated games; that does not pay at −110 (needs 52%).

We expect 44.4 total points; the line is 40.5. The over hits 59% of the time.

Jacksonville is favored to beat Cleveland by 6.8 points. The book has them by 8.5.

The Jaguars cover −8.5 in 45% of our 20,000 simulated games; that does not pay at −112 (needs 53%).

We expect 42.5 total points; the line is 39.5. The over hits 57% of the time.

Houston is favored to beat Buffalo by 1.4 points. The book has Buffalo by 1.5.

The Bills cover −1.5 in 42% of our 20,000 simulated games; that does not pay at −108 (needs 52%).

We expect 45.2 total points; the line is 44.5. That lands within a point of the line.

We have Minnesota and Green Bay even. The book has Minnesota by 2.5.

The Vikings cover −2.5 in 44% of our 20,000 simulated games; that does not pay at −105 (needs 51%).

We expect 44.3 total points; the line is 46.5. The under hits 57% of the time.

Detroit is favored to beat New Orleans by 6.2 points. The book has them by 7.

The Lions cover −7 in 48% of our 20,000 simulated games; that does not pay at −110 (needs 52%).

We expect 47.5 total points; the line is 49.5. The under hits 56% of the time.

Kansas City is favored to beat Denver by 1.2 points. The book has them by 2.5.

The Chiefs cover −2.5 in 49% of our 20,000 simulated games; that does not pay at −115 (needs 53%).

We expect 42.3 total points; the line is 43.5. The under hits 55% of the time.

Philadelphia is favored to beat Washington by 7.7 points. The book has them by 6.

The Eagles cover −6 in 56% of our 20,000 simulated games; that pays at −108 (needs 52%).

We expect 44.7 total points; the line is 44.5. That lands within a point of the line.

Chicago is favored to beat Carolina by 2.0 points. The book has them by 3.

The Bears cover −3 in 48% of our 20,000 simulated games; that does not pay at −118 (needs 54%).

We expect 46.4 total points; the line is 47.5. The under hits 55% of the time.